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Statistics say it’s time to be dry

A long-range weather forecasting company says there’s very little chance for a wet harvest this year in the Midwest.

“It’s almost a statistical zero, about 95 percent of a hot, dry fall.”

CEO and co-founder of Weather Trends International Bill Kirk tells Brownfield after about four years of very wet weather, history says it’s time for a swing to the dry side.  And while he says there will be some yield loss, crops should fair pretty well.

“Our early projection for this year was actually being a record, near-record year.  Anytime you go into a season with this strong of a good to excellent rating and that much soil moisture in the season, it usually weathers the storm.”

Kirk says it’s 2021 that should cause concern with about 45 percent of the country currently in dry to drought phases expected to increase up to 65 percent as the U.S. transitions into La Nina.  It should cause a dry, cold winter and low soil moisture levels which hasn’t happened since 2013.

Another major factor Kirk is monitoring – the impact of reduced air pollution during the coronavirus pandemic.

“Pollution has actually kept the earth cooler, if you will, because of the blocking of solar radiation.  If you take that pollution away which we’ve done this year, it in part explains why we’re so hot and dry.”

And, he says be on the lookout for the impact of hurricanes this season as it’s projected to be the worst in 15 years.