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Soybean analyst looks ahead to Friday’s USDA reports

A market analyst says the combination of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report and skyrocketing futures prices has farmers talking about the commodities markets. 

Mac Marshall is the Vice President of Market Intelligence for the United Soybean Board.  He says farmers have more forward contracting opportunities now than they did at this time last year. “The futures curve was still in that eight to nine dollar range and now, there’s certainly a lot more opportunity for getting 12-plus dollars across the whole futures curve for new crop beans.”

Marshall says farmers were in a low-price scenario since the 2013-2014 marketing year until coming back with a vengeance last fall.  He says the demand environment has been robust, but the inventories had to get pressed to see prices rise.  Marshall says with demand pegged at three times U.S. production or more than 370 million tons and untimely weather, there is another factor to watch as Brazil and Argentina finish their harvest. “There are some concerns I’m hearing now about moisture levels in the major growing regions, particularly Mato Grosso, so as Brazilian beans start to hit the market and users are getting them into the value chain, the quality issue will be interesting to see unfold.”

Marshall tells Brownfield he will be anxious to see Friday’s supply and demand report, especially the U.S. ending soybean stocks balance is, and to see if it moves from last month’s 120-million-bushel figure.