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Safrinha corn concerns

Concerns about Brazil’s Safrinha corn are intensifying.

Safrinha is second-crop corn planted after the soybean harvest.

Analyst Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis tells Brownfield production estimates are being lowered because of drought conditions in parts of Brazil.

“If Brazil does have a problem with their crop, and I’m talking to the tune of 10 to 15 million metric tons (below expectations), that probably opens the door (for) more export demand coming for U.S. corn.”

But as old crop supplies dwindle in the U.S., he says demand would likely be for new crop since the Brazilian harvest will begin in July.

“Then (Brazil) starts exporting corn into the world market August, September, October. And if their crop is under 100 million metric tons, a good share of that corn will just not be in the export market, and that would mean buyers would have to come to the U.S. to get it.”

The USDA is forecasting a 109 million metric ton corn crop for Brazil, but some analysts have recently projected a range of 90 to 95 million.