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Russian-Ukrainian peace won’t mean less market volatility

An ag economist says eventual peace between Russia and Ukraine likely won’t bring an immediate end to the added market volatility from their conflict.

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman tells Brownfield corn and wheat markets will likely see sharp drops after a peace agreement – but he says there will be long-lasting impacts.

“It’s going to take a long time to sort this thing out, to bring production back online in Ukraine,” he said. “Russia has so angered the world community, it’s going to be a long time sanctions are lifted.”

He said Russia’s invasion added more fuel to the fire in an already tight global commodity market.

“Suddenly, now, we’re looking at not only tight supplies – but we’ve removed a big section of those supplies out of the Black Sea [region] responsible for about 29 percent of our world’s exports,” Suderman said.

He said while some of that product will return to the market, the lack of fertilizer production from the region is lowering global crop production estimates which is further increasing expected supply tightness.

Brownfield interviewed Suderman earlier this month at Commodity Classic in New Orleans.