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Russian invasion of Ukraine could boost U.S. farm incomes

A leading ag economist says U.S. farm incomes could receive a boost if the Russian – Ukrainian war isn’t resolved quickly.

Head of the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Pat Westhoff, says the group’s January projections showed a likely decline for farm income this year… But he tells Brownfield Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sharply lowered South American crop production estimates might change that.

“The increase in commodity prices will tend to push receipts up,” he said. “We (FAPRI) think it’s likely that that increase in receipts will be greater than the increase in cost. But again, we’re probably a ways from being able to tell that, given how fast things are moving right now.”

Westhoff said his expectation for U.S. farm income would drop substantially if there were a resolve to the tensions in the Black Sea region in the next few weeks.

“The longer you wait, though, the more likely it is that you’re going to be significantly affecting production in Ukraine in particular in 2022,” he said. “And that will have longer-term impacts on markets.”

Westhoff said FAPRI will be updating their projections to account for recent market changes soon.