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Rice outlook increases, cotton decreases

The USDA raised its production estimate for rice, while cutting the outlook for cotton.

Rice production is currently seen at 224.952 million hundredweight, 3% above August and 22% larger than 2019, with an average yield of 7,529 pounds per acre, compared to 7,600 last month, with harvested area of 2.988 million acres. In 2019. rice totaled 184.675 million hundredweight with an average yield of 7,471 pounds per acre and harvested area of 2.472 million acres.

Upland cotton is estimated at 16.505 million bales, 6% lower than a month ago, with a record average yield for all types of cotton at 910 pounds per acre, about 30 less than in August, and the USDA also lowered outlooks for planted and harvested area for cotton. Last year, upland cotton totaled 19.227 million bales with an average yield of 810 pounds per acre and harvested area of 11.389 million acres.

New crop U.S. rice stocks were higher, but the world supply guess was lower, and new crop U.S. and world cotton ending stocks were down on the month.

The 2020/21 marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 9th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Rice: 108.075 million hundredweight, compared to 84.257 million in 2019; average yield of 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,550 a month ago and 7,480 a year ago; harvested area of 1.441 million acres, compared to 1.126 million last year; Upland Cotton: 1.3 million bales, compared to 1.506 million in 2019; average yield of 1,200 pounds per acre, compared to 1,195 a month ago and 1,185 a year ago; harvested area of 520,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year

Missouri: Rice: 16.125 million hundredweight, compared to 12.747 million in 2019; average yield of 7,500 pounds, compared to 7,500 a month ago and 7,370 a year ago; harvested area of 215,000 acres, compared to 173,000 last year; Upland Cotton: 720,000 bales, compared to 915,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,204 pounds per acre, compared to 1,331 a month ago and 1,193 a year ago; harvested area of 287,000 acres, compared to 368,000 last year

Tennessee: Upland Cotton: 650,000 bales, compared to 960,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,135 pounds per acre, compared to 1,078 a month ago and 1,138 a year ago; harvested area of 275,000 acres, compared to 405,000 last year

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