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Resiliency expected as war continues in Black Sea region

Over the weekend, Russian forces hit a grain terminal in a city in southern Ukraine. But a market analyst says the continued fighting in the Black Sea region isn’t changing what the grain markets already know about Ukrainian crop production.

“Nothing is going to be shipped out of Ukraine, at least through the Black Sea,” says Tim Marsh with Summit Commodities.

Marsh says while there have been concerns about Ukraine’s ability to ship grain, the dire warnings of Ukrainian production and exports declining greatly due to the war is overblown. 

“Ukrainians have been very resilient throughout the course of the war and they’ll continue to farm as much as they can and with the help of Europe, export as much as they can,” he says. “It probably won’t be as much as they would have been able to do without the Black Sea corridor, but it won’t be zero either. They’ve been known to outperform expectations.”

Marsh says the U.S. grain markets aren’t focused as much on the Russia-Ukraine war as they are about U.S. crop production.