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Questions about corn export adjustments

Slow export demand might lead to higher U.S. corn ending stocks Friday. Garrett Toay with Ag Trader Talk says the USDA didn’t cut the corn export guess in November and the situation hasn’t improved, “The export program really has not improved over the last 30 days, in fact, U.S. corn commitments through week 13 are 34% of the USDA’s estimate and that’s the worst since 2019.”

Still, that’s not without some historical caveats. Toay says there’s a slight tendency to increase corn carryout in December but there’s a chance the USDA could wait until January, “You’d have to go back to 2018/19 for the last time we had a November to December carryout increase. That’s worth noting because 2019 was the last time the export program was this bad. They either cut, or it’s going to be a punt, so I would be too afraid to shy away from just keeping it ho-hum here either.”

The numbers are out at Noon Eastern/11 Central.

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