News

Quarterly corn, soybean stocks lower than expected

The USDA says corn and soybean supplies on September 1st were tighter than what some analysts were expecting heading into the report. These numbers effectively serve as the preliminary corn, sorghum, and soybean ending stocks totals for the 2018/19 marketing year or beginning stocks for 2019/20. The new marketing year for beans, corn, and sorghum started September 1st.

Old crop corn stocks totaled 2.114 billion bushels, down 1% on the year, even with a lower indicated rate of disappearance during the fourth quarter of the marketing year, moving from 3.16 billion bushels during the fourth quarter of 2017/18 to 3.09 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018/19. Earlier this month, the USDA estimated corn ending stocks at 2.445 billion bushels. On-farm stocks were 753.3 million bushels, up 22% from September 1st, 2018, while off-farm stocks were 1.361 billion bushels, down 10%.

Old crop soybean stocks were reported at 913.054 million bushels, more than double the end of the previous marketing year, but below the USDA’s projection earlier in the month of 1.005 billion and with good fourth quarter usage, 11% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017/18. The USDA also lowered the 2018 U.S. soybean production total by 116 million bushels to 4.428 billion and reduced the average yield by a bushel to 50.6 bushels per acre. On-farm stocks were 265 million bushels, an increase of 162%, and off-farm stocks were 648.054 million bushels, a jump of 92%.

All wheat was slightly below a year ago at 2.385 billion bushels, but with an 11% year-to-year rise in implied first quarter 2019/20 demand. On-farm stocks accounted for 775.5 million bushels, 23% higher, and off-farm stocks were 1.609 billion bushels, 8% lower.

Old crop sorghum totaled 63.661 million bushels, a year-to-year surge of 83%, despite a 76% increase in fourth quarter usage. The USDA’s last guess for 2018/19 sorghum ending stocks was 55 million bushels. On-farm stocks were 3.21 million bushels, 4% less than a year ago, with off-farm supplies at 60.451 million bushels, 92% more.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out October 10th.