News

Not many changes for U.S. supply and demand outlook

The USDA made little to no changes to the domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, or wheat. Ahead of the report, most analysts were expecting minor changes, with minimal influence from demand expectations for China or impact from the coronavirus. 2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged at 1.892 billion bushels, with the USDA lowering the average price outlook $.05 to $3.80 per bushel, and soybean ending stocks were steady at 425 million bushels, with the USDA also lowering the price outlook for beans by $.05 to $8.70. No changes were made for wheat, with ending stocks seen at 940 million bushels with an average price of $4.55 per bushel. Wheat is now in the final quarter of the marketing year while corn and soybeans are just past the halfway point.

The USDA has raised its’ outlook for soybean production in South America. Brazil’s crop is seen at 126 million tons and Argentina is pegged at 54 million, both up 1 million tons on the month, but with no changes to exports or imports by China, leaving global ending stocks above a month ago. World corn ending stocks and production were both slightly higher than last month, with a bigger crop estimate for South Africa thanks to forecasts for more favorable weather, also increasing exports for South Africa and Ukraine. World wheat ending stocks were down less than a million tons on the month, with production slightly higher, and bigger export projections for Argentina and Russia against reductions for Australia and Canada.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th.

Comparisons for selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 940 million bushels, compared to 940 million in February and 1.080 billion for 2018/19. The USDA made no changes to either the supply or the demand outlooks. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $4.55 per bushel, compared to $4.55 a month ago and $5.16 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.892 billion bushels, compared to 1.892 billion last month and 2.221 billion last marketing year. No changes were made to the balance sheet for corn. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $3.80 per bushel, compared to $3.85 for February and $3.61 for 2018/19.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 425 million bushels, compared to 425 million a month ago and 909 million the previous marketing year. There were no changes to the domestic soybean balance sheet. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price is $8.70 per bushel, compared to $8.75 last month and $8.48 last marketing year. The USDA left soybean oil ending stocks unchanged at 1.515 billion pounds, lowering biodiesel use 200 million pounds to 8 billion, but raising exports 200 million pounds to 2.1 billion. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price for soybean oil is $.315 per pound, compared to $.335 in February and $.2826 for 2018/19. Soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged at 375,000 short tons, with no changes to the balance sheet. The average estimated 2019/20 farm price for soybean meal is $305 per short ton, compared to $305 a month ago and $308.28 the previous marketing year.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 287.14 million tons, compared to 288.03 million in the prior update. Production was up just over a half million tons at 764.49 million on increased expectations for Argentina, India, and Russia cancelling out decreases for Australia and Kazakhstan. Domestic feed use is pegged at 147.91 million tons, compared to 148.01 million last month, with exports of 183.62 million tons, compared to 182.82 million a month ago. Export projections are higher for Argentina and Russia, lower for Australia and Canada.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are seen at 297.34 million tons, compared to 296.84 million a month ago. World production is expected to be 1.112 billion pounds, slightly more than the previous month, on an increase for South Africa cancelling out a decrease for Russia. Domestic feed use is estimated at 705.8 million tons, compared to 704.89 million last month, with exports of 165.83 million tons, compared to 165.77 million in February. The USDA hiked export guesses for the European Union, South Africa, and Ukraine, but cut projections for Russia, Canada, and southeast Asia.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are pegged at 102.44 million tons, compared to 98.86 million in February. The global crop is projected at 341.76 million tons, compared to 339.4 million in the last update, on higher outlooks for Argentina and Brazil. Domestic crush demand is expected to be 303.45 million tons, compared to 304.33 million a month ago, with exports of 151.88 million tons, compared to 151.5 million last month. The USDA left exports unchanged for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Imports by China were steady on the month at 88 million tons.