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Market and policy dynamics could complicate prevented planting decisions

The decision to claim prevented planting is always a tough one. It’s even more difficult this year because of market and policy uncertainties.

University of Illinois ag economist Gary Schnitkey says one question is how USDA will structure the next round of Market Facilitation Program payments.

“If that program bases its payment on 2019 production, then you have to consider that when you’re making your planting decisions,” Schnitkey says. “Various individuals within the USDA said that they would be trying to not impact prevented planting decisions, or planting decisions in general. Whether that happens is a good question.”

Rising corn prices may provide incentive to go ahead and plant. But Schnitkey says farmers should also consider what a low yield this year could do their APH—Actual Production History.

“If they take prevented planting, there is no impact on APH yield,” he says. “But if they plant, that lower yield will enter into their APH, which will carry on for several years into the future.”

Farmers should check with crop insurance agents when making prevented planting decisions.  (Link to farmdocdaily report on prevented planting)