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Latest Ag Economy Barometer reflects uncertainty in the industry

Uncertainty in the agriculture industry is reflected in the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Jim Mintert, director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, tells Brownfield “we have the rise in farm input costs, breakevens are climbing dramatically, and even though commodity prices are at elevated levels for crops in particular the cost side of the equation is causing a lot of consternation among producers. It’s a lot about this uncertainty. There’s uncertainty with respect to what it’s going to cost to put a crop in the ground next spring and there’s uncertainty with respect to whether or not all the inputs are really going to be available.”

The overall Ag Economy Barometer fell to a reading of 116. The Index of Current Conditions declined seven points to 128 and the Index of Future Expectations fell 4 points to 110.

He says farmers are less optimistic about current conditions.

“The decline in current conditions suggest people are maybe starting to look ahead,” he says. “For crop producers, 2021 is going to be a very good year with strength in farm income, production, and commodity prices. But, the story for 2022 is quite a bit different and I think the Index of Current Conditions is starting to reflect some of what people are thinking is going to happen in the future.”

The monthly national survey of 400 agricultural producers was conducted November 15-19.

Audio: Jim Mintert