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Larger Brazilian, smaller Argentinian soybean crop create questions about US markets

A commodity broker says uncertainty about South American soybean production could add more volatility to the markets.

Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners tells Brownfield analysts will raise Brazil’s production estimates by 1 to 3 million tons. “About 15 percent of Brazil has areas of moisture has been lower that has been hurting yield. There’s about 40 percent that I would say is about trendline.  There’s about 45 percent of Brazil as you move further north that is above the trendline.” 

He says even with lower production in Argentina due to drought, the South American crop will create more competition for US producers. “Wetter conditions, which helped the crop, is also keeping them from being able to get as much harvested.  February offers coming out of Brazil, there aren’t a lot of those, and that is opening up the door for a few more exports. Going forward, when they produce a big crop, once that hits the marketplace that is going to be priced much cheaper than us.”

He says Brazil’s soybean crop will be harvested in the next six weeks and the market could react through March before US exports pick up again.