News

Export pace has market bears on the run

Export and production forecasts set up a tug of war between market bulls and bears. For now, the bulls are winning.

Market analyst Tregg Cronin says the USDA is light on its soybean export forecast. He cites exporters’ commitments to China currently at 97.7 percent of the marketing year projection.

“We’ve got over six months left in the marketing year,” Cronin told an audience for South Dakota Soybean’s virtual AgOutlook, “so sometime in March or early April, we’re going to have sold USDA’s entire export forecast, and we have to get through the end of August.”

For corn, Cronin says prices are supported despite the USDA’s near record 2021 crop projection, which he says is needed just to keep stocks flat, challenging market bears.

“Because I don’t think that you can have prices set back in any meaningful fashion,” said Cronin, “until at least we get through planting and we see that the weather pattern is a bit favorable and looks like we actually have a chance at these yields.”

Another AgOutlook virtual session about what weather is expected for spring and summer 2021. Atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass makes that presentation Thursday evening, February 25th, at 7:30.