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Economist says China’s global relationships affecting ag outlook for ’22

An economist says China’s global trading relationship is casting uncertainty for the ag economy in 2022.

Ernie Goss with Creighton University says his outlook hinges on China’s relationship with Taiwan after the Winter Olympics next month. “Does China get more aggressive in terms of Taiwan.  That’s going to be a real issue,” he says. “I would call that a black swan.  That could be the real fly in the ointment for agriculture.”

He tells Brownfield that’s one reason why he doesn’t expect the ag economy to be as positive this year compared to 2021. “I expect the exports to slow.  I expect of course higher interest rates and that will have some impacts.  But also, the rising value of the dollar will put some downward pressure on exports.”

And, Goss says another factor is growing tensions with China and Ukraine could put more pressure on the global ag economy.

He says the recent Rural Mainstreet Index suggests healthy growth for the rural areas. The survey of bank CEOs showed the index moved above growth neutral for the 14th straight month.