News

Economist predicts similar 2023 for beef sector

A livestock economist doesn’t expect much change in the cattle market in 2023.

Lance Zimmerman with Rabobank tells Brownfield producers are holding back replacement heifers as they battle drought and high feed prices. “What I’m really focused on is what total female cattle slaughter looks like, not just the cow side but also those young heifers, and when you look at that total number, we’ll probably end 2022 around 17.6 million head of cows and heifers being slaughtered this year.”

And, he says that will have implications beyond 2023. “We’re basically sacrificing today’s young herd replacements to build a beef production number that’s record high today, and that’s going to influence our cow numbers considerably, not just this year which, is already a given with the culling rate that we’re in, but it’s going to sacrifice gains in the cow herd for next year.”

Zimmerman says without better winter and spring precipitation, this pattern will likely continue sacrificing next year’s cow herd into 2024.  He says the higher feed costs and limited grazing resources are affecting both cow-calf and stocker-backgrounder operations.