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Economist expected farmers’ planting intentions to be higher

An ag economist is surprised at the results of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report.

“Not many acres as we thought we might see today.”

Ben Brown with the University of Missouri tells Brownfield while USDA’s projection for combined planted acres is higher than last year at 316 million, it is about 3 million less than he expected and what was planted in 2018.

“Given the prices that we see now and wat we are hearing from farmers, I think the general impression was that if there is an acre to be planted out there, it was going to get planted this year.”

He figured high corn and soybean prices, increased US corn and soybean purchases by China and weather hindering the South American crops would incentivize farmers to plant maximum acres of corn and soybeans.

“But wheat went up, cotton held its own around 12 million acres and sorghum was up. So, everything pretty much held its position and that decreased the acreage availability for corn and soybeans.”

He says if weather and prices remain optimistic, he expects planted acres will increase by June. He also predicts that the lower relative input cost of soybeans to corn will push an increase in double crop soybeans after winter wheat.

Brown was originally expecting a surprise in the quarterly grain stocks report, but says it aligned with his estimates. However, based on soybean stocks and planting intentions, he says it is still looking tight for soybeans next year as well.