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CONAB makes modest changes to Brazil crop outlook

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has lowered its grain production outlook, while still projecting record large crops. That modest reduction to 312.2 million tons was tied to a cut in the corn yield estimate due to dry conditions in some southern growing areas and a reduction in planted area for rice.

Overall, production is expected to be above a year ago, making more competition for the U.S. on the export market, but that will depend on good weather throughout the remainder of the growing season.

CONAB sees the combined corn crop at 125.828 million tons, down a half a percent from November, with the almost fully planted first crop at 27.226 million tons and second crop production at 96.271 million tons, while raising the corn export guess. Brazil’s second crop is the largest of the three and the source of most of their exports.

Brazilian soybean production is expected to be 153.478 million tons, a little bit less than a month ago with planting likely wrapped up at the end of the month, but that is 22.2% above a year ago.

The ag group also reduced their projections for cotton and rice.

CONAB’s next round of production estimates for Brazil is out January 12th.

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