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Chief economist says the Heartland could see net farm income rise in 2021

USDA’s first look at 2021 Farm Income projects overall net farm income to decline significantly while cash receipts are expected to rise.

USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer says it’s a very unusual situation, but there are regional disparities and net farm income may not decline everywhere.  “The region that USDA/ERS calls the Heartland (the majority of the Corn Belt), those folks doing well are actually expected to have rising farm income in 2021 because of the strength of corn, soybeans, cattle, and hogs,” he says. “Whereas the rest of the country may see a little bit lower farm income because those commodities contribute less to their bottom line.”

He tells Brownfield weather is always a factor, however, it’s too early to anticipate any impact for the upcoming crop year. “If you take a more normal weather perspective in the spring, and I still think that’s a reasonable assumption, and you take a normal prevent plant and weather assumption for planting this year, you’re going to gain back acres just on prevent plant,” he says.

But, Meyer says that’s not the case for producers needing land for grazing.  “But those livestock folks will have to make decisions if that drought continues where its at into the spring,” he says. 

Even though USDA projects 2021 overall Net Farm Income to decline 8 percent (or nearly $10 billion), it is still 21 percent above the 2000 to 2019 average of $92.1 billion.   

AUDIO: Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, USDA

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