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CattleFax’s Kevin Good looks at the cattle inventory report

CattleFax market analyst Kevin Good says Friday’s cattle inventory report came out about as expected.

“It would suggest that the beef cow herd plateaued about 12 months ago and actually declined by one percent—and there were a few less dairy cows as well,” Good says. “So from a long-term perspective, it points to a flatter cattle and supply situation over the next couple years.”

Good sees several factors contributing to the decline, including tough weather in the High Plains last spring and a dry fall in the Southern Plains.

“From a price standpoint, prices were a little sloppy in the second half of last year on the calf market, led by the unfortunate event of the plant fire there at the Holcomb plant that deteriorated values of all cattle there as we went through last fall.”

Even with the inventory decline, Good says there will still be plenty of beef in 2020.

“You’ve got an on-feed number that’s elevated by 300-thousand head. We’ve got heavier carcass weights,” he says. “So really, as we think about the short to intermediate market, it probably doesn’t change much, looking at supply and fed cattle values.”

But Good says the report could mean stronger yearling and calf values as the year goes on.