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Cattle inventory down, pointing to tighter numbers

The U.S. cattle industry continues to contract, with even tighter numbers likely in the coming months due to a smaller calf crop caused by drought in the major feeding areas and producers trying to improve margins in the face of high feed costs.

The USDA says the domestic cattle inventory at the start of the year was 89.274 million head, 3% less than on January 1st, 2022. That included a 3% decrease in the numbers of cows and heifers that have calved to 38.32 million head with a 4% decline in beef cows to 28.918 million head canceling out a slight rise for milk cows at 9.403 million.

All heifers weighing at least 500 pounds were 4% lower than last year at 19.173 million head, with a 6% drop for beef replacement heifers, a 2% decline for milk replacement heifers, and a 3% decrease in other types of heifers.

Calves weighing less than 500 pounds fell by 3% to 13.621 million head with the 2022 calf crop 2% smaller than 2021 at 34.465 million head, with a slight downward revision to the July 1st estimate.

Steers and bulls weighing 500 pounds and heavier were also below year ago levels.

The numbers look supportive to cash and wholesale prices, but that will also depend on beef demand.

The USDA’s next Cattle Inventory report is out in July.

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