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Bearish week for old crop corn exports, bullish for new crop

The USDA says old crop corn sales during the week ending May 6th notched a marketing year low following cancellations by China and unknown destinations, but it was a strong week for new crop sales, topping 2 million tons, with China and unknown destinations leading the way. Aside from that highlight, it was a generally quiet week for sales as high prices and competition from other nations led buyers to find alternatives to U.S. supplies. Old crop sales for soybeans, soybean products, cotton, and rice were all down on the week, with declines also seen in beef and pork. Old crop wheat and sorghum did improve marginally but were lower than average. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out June 10th.

Physical shipments of corn, sorghum, and soybeans were above what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year. The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st, 2020 for wheat, August 1st, 2020 for cotton and rice, September 1st, 2020 for beans, corn, and sorghum, and October 1st, 2020 for soybean products. The marketing year for beef and pork is the calendar year.

Wheat came out at 30,300 tons (1,113,334 million bushels), up from the marketing year low hit during the week ending April 29th. South Korea purchased 67,900 tons and Malaysia bought 36,000 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 97,000 tons. With less than a month left in the 2020/21 marketing year, wheat sales are 23,006,000 tons, compared to 22,795,200 late in 2019/20. Sales of 268,000 tons (9,847,312 bushels) for 2021/22 delivery were mainly to Mexico (96,900 tons) and unknown destinations (76,700 tons).

Corn had a net reduction of 113,400 tons (-4,464,312 bushels). Sales of 41,000 to 168,700 tons were more than offset by cancellations from China (334,300 tons) and unknown destinations (192,600 tons). Closing in on the final quarter of the marketing year, corn sales are 45,047,500 tons, compared to 25,345,300 this time last year. Sales of 2,083,600 tons (82,027,165 bushels) for 2021/22 delivery were primarily to China (1,036,000 tons) and unknown destinations (254,000 tons).

Sorghum sales were 71,100 tons (2,799,065 bushels), sharply higher than the previous week, but down 63% from the four-week average. China picked up 139,100 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 68,000 tons. Sorghum exports are 5,708,000 tons, compared to 2,125,900 a year ago.

Rice sales were 27,600 tons, down 43% from the week before and 37% from the four-week average. Mexico purchased 20,200 tons and Canada bought 2,700 tons. Rice exports are 2,446,300 tons, compared to 2,579,200 last year.

Soybeans were pegged at 94,300 tons (2,799,065 bushels), 43% lower than the prior week and 38% below the four-week average. Indonesia picked up 60,300 tons and Mexico purchased 24,500 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 41,200 tons. So far, this marketing year, soybean sales are 56,614,100 tons, compared to 34,390,400 a year ago. Sales of 102,500 tons (3,766,229 bushels) for 2021/22 delivery were to Mexico (98,000 tons) and Japan (4,500 tons).

Soybean meal was reported at 74,600 tons, a decline of 63% on the week and 47% from the four-week average. Mexico bought 23,400 tons and Canada picked up 19,300 tons. For the marketing year to date, soybean meal sales are 7,701,000 tons, compared to 7,337,700 last year. Sales of 32,000 tons for 2021/22 delivery were mostly to Mexico (17,000 tons) and Honduras (7,500 tons).

Soybean oil came out at 800 tons, a drop of 87% from the previous week and 77% from the four-week average. Guatemala purchased 500 tons and Mexico bought 400 tons, while Canada canceled on 100 tons. Cumulative soybean oil sales are 592,800 tons, compared to 776,100 a year ago.

Upland cotton was pegged at 54,400 bales, 15% under the week before and 41% less than the four-week average. Vietnam picked up 26,200 bales and China purchased 14,500 bales. 2020/21 upland cotton sales are 11,561,200 bales, compared to 10,557,900 in 2019/20. Sales of 72,100 bales for 2021/22 delivery were mainly to Pakistan (39,600 bales) and Mexico (23,800 bales).

Net beef sales were 13,100 tons, down 22% from the prior week and 35% from the four-week average. The listed buyers were Japan (4,100 tons), China (2,400 tons), South Korea (2,000 tons), Mexico (1,300 tons), and Canada (1,200 tons). Shipments of 17,700 tons were a decline of 4% on the week and 7% from the four-week average, primarily to Japan (5,100 tons), South Korea (5,100 tons), China (2,600 tons), Mexico (1,400 tons), and Taiwan (1,100 tons).

Net pork sales were 14,700 tons, a drop of 69% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. The reported purchasers were Mexico (5,300 tons), China (3,000 tons), Japan (2,900 tons), the Dominican Republic (800 tons), and Canada (700 tons). Shipments of 41,900 tons were an increase of 13% from the week before, but a decrease of 6% from the four-week average, mostly to Mexico (14,200 tons), China (12,300 tons), Japan (4,300 tons), South Korea (2,600 tons), and Canada (2,000 tons).

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