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Argentine soybean losses likely priced in

A market analyst does not anticipate another surge in soybean prices as Argentine production forecasts continue getting slashed.

Jamey Kohake with Paragon Ag Advisors says a 14 percent reduction in Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange soybean estimate had little impact on the futures market.

“That was not a real big market-mover when it came out (Thursday).  We did see a little bit of a bounce (Friday), but we’re still stuck in the same trading range.  I think we need fresh news.  And that news being let’s get into harvest and see what happens.  Prove the yields aren’t there.”

The Rosario estimate was lowered from 46.5 million tons to 40 million.

USDA is forecasting Argentine soybean production at 47 million, and Kohake tells Brownfield the truth is likely somewhere in between.

“We’re probably somewhere in the low 40’s for the bean crop.  That looks to be in the market, and we’ll see how that plays out in the next 30 to 40 days.”

Kohake recommends farmers stay aggressive selling soybeans at current price levels, but suggests a more conservative approach for corn.

 

 

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