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Analysts expect more contraction in the cattle herd

Many ag economists are expecting to see continued contraction in today’s biannual cattle inventory report.

University of Missouri livestock economist Scott Brown.  “The average guess of beef cow numbers would suggest a decline of 1.8%,” he says.  “Even the range shows declines of the upper end and the upper end of the range shows a decline of 1.4%.”

He tells Brownfield total cattle and calves are projected to be down 1.2 percent and the calf crop is expected to drop about 1 percent.  “To me, all of that spells some positive news as supplies of beef continue to shrink as we get further into 2022 and into 2023,” he says. 

Brown says drought conditions in any major cattle-producing area could cause even more herd contraction.

The biannual report contains the inventory numbers and values of all cattle and calves, number of operations and size group estimates by class and state, as well as the entire US.  It also includes statistics on cattle on feed and grazing on small grain pastures, along with calf crop data.

The report comes out at 3 Eastern/2 Central.