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Analysts call latest Hogs and Pigs report a game changer

The latest Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA showed a decline of 2 percent year over year and pork analysts say the report is more than just a little bullish.

In fact, Joe Kerns with Partners for Production Agriculture says, “this is the reprieve the pork producers have been looking for for quite some time.” He says this marks the first reduction in March over March that the industry has seen since 2014.  “After seven straight years of growth, we finally see a little bit of a pull-back here,” he says.

Daniel Bluntzer with NFC Markets, an agricultural brokerage firm, says this report could be a game changer.  “We’ve reduced the herd some 250,000 sows,” he says.  “We haven’t had that kind of a reduction since 2008-2009.”

Jim Mintert with Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture says demand is the wild card.  He says they’re anticipating domestic demand to grow as the US starts to return to more normal consumer habits.  And internationally, he says, “Our pork exports to China were roughly double what they were in 2019 and there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty around what that volume might be for 2021.”

The analysts who took part in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs call hosted by the National Pork Board on Thursday say barring any unforeseen disruptions, the price picture looks very positive for producers in 2021.

Joe Kerns has prices in the second quarter at the National Direct at $101 to $104, the third quarter at $99 to $102, and the fourth quarter of 2021 at $81 to $84.

Daniel Bluntzer projects the CME Lean Hog prices at $96 for the second quarter, the third quarter at $91, and the fourth quarter at $76. 

Jim Mintert has the National Direct Weighted Average price range for the second quarter at $81 to $84, the third quarter at $80 to $85, and the fourth quarter at $70 to $76.