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Analyst says tariff impacts felt more at harvest
Grains and oilseeds analyst Steve Nicholson says China’s tariff on soybeans imported from the U.S. will have more impact after harvest begins. Nicholson, who is with Rabo AgriFinance, tells Brownfield most of China’s summer soybean imports come from South America, from Brazil mostly, but U.S. soybean market reaction will be greater if tariffs remain into the fall.
“That’s when this could get a lot more bearish if this is not resolved by that point in time,” said Nicholson, during an interview with Brownfield Ag News.
China could theoretically avoid buying U.S. soybeans by filling their demand only with Brazilian soybeans, but according to Nicolson, Brazil would have no soybeans left for their own needs. China is going to have to somehow acquire U.S. soybeans, said Nicholson.
“Beans will find their way from the U.S. to China,” Nicholson concluded. “They may find their way there directly with the tariff, or they may find their way there through another channel.”
Nicholson is quick to acknowledge there’s already been harm to U.S. soybean growers resulting from the steep downturn in the soybean market.
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