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Analyst expects next round of USDA reports to be bearish

A market analyst expects the next round of USDA reports to weigh heavily on corn and soybean futures.

Jamey Kohake with Paragon Investments says Friday’s Prospective Planting forecast and quarterly stocks figures will probably be bearish.

“I don’t see a big game-changer of funds wanting to blow out of a massive amount of positions, just enough to really show some good returns that they’ve made on their short positions for this quarter.”

Paragon estimates 2019 corn acreage at 91.3 million and soybeans at just over 86 million.

Kohake tells Brownfield if there’s volatility, it will come from Quarterly Stocks.

“The funds are kind of signaling, and they’ve had time to adjust this the last two weeks of weather, they’re not too concerned about losing a few million acres in corn (and) maybe adding a million, million and-a-half on soybeans. They are still concerned looking at the global markets.”

He says soybean ending stocks could be as high as 2.7 billion, up from 2.1 billion March first.

Kohake is forecasting a lower ending stocks number for corn, around 8.3 billion bushels.