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Allendale yield survey shows lower corn, soybean production

A yield survey by a commodity and brokerage firm shows that record heat this summer could lower US corn and soybean production.

Rich Nelson with Allendale Inc says corn yields declined to 171.5 bushels per acre with production at 14.8 billion bushels – a loss of 300 million. “Whether it’s a kernel development, kernel depth and many other issues, those are certainly issues which a lot of people have suggested that may impact the test weight issue. While we have the kernels on the cob so to speak, the issue is what is the quality of that kernel.”

He says that’s not good news for commodity prices. “We need to have a nationwide corn yield down to 163.  Remember, we’re at 171.5, to justify December corn holding these prices.”  

He says soybean yields dropped a 1.5 bushels per acre to 49.6, and production declined to 100 million bushels to 4.1 billion bushels. “Until USDA addresses some of the export sales concerns, which may not happen for another two or three months, the message for soybeans is a smaller crop, but I think there’s still a lot of room to say there’s a lot of unknowns.

Nelson says Nebraska took the biggest hit with a 14 bushel per acre loss in corn and an 8 bushel per acre loss in soybeans. “We could argue that yes, we got some normal rains for portions of July. Normal rains for the first two weeks of August. But we can say that Nebraska, specifically, didn’t get that last rain or two before the dryness started.”

The corn and soybean totals are below USDA’s latest guesses.

The 34^th Nationwide Producer Yield Survey showed estimates based on producer calculated yields in 25 states, which covers 86 percent of corn production and 82 percent of soybean production.

Rich Nelson with Allendale: