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Ag exports to face several headwinds in ‘23

The U.S. is expected to have a record year for ag export sales, but an economist says that may not continue in 2023.

Chief Economist Gregg Doud with Aimpoint Research says there are several headwinds for next year including Brazil’s corn and soybean crop. “2023 will be really remarkable as we look a year from now in the size and scope of farm production in Brazil.  We think soybean acres will be up 4 percent, but I’m particularly interested to see how much corn Brazil will grow.”

He says another challenge is lower water levels in the Mississippi River. “It’s just cost prohibitive to move a barge of grain down the Mississippi and be competitive in the marketplace. That’s unfortunate because our window for soybeans is the middle September through the middle of February.  If we can’t get this stuff down the Mississippi by the middle of February and get it loaded on a boat, then we’re going to miss our window and the Brazilians are going to take over.”

Doud says several countries have a shrinking economy and a stronger U.S. dollar will reduce demand. “I think it will be a challenge for us in certain parts of the world where per capita incomes are below that middle income threshold.”

And, Doud says, Mexico’s intentions to ban biotech corn could have a severe impact on corn exports.

Doud made his remarks during a Farm Foundation Forum: Ag Trade and Commodity Outlook for 2023.