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AEI considers drought impact on yields

An ag economist says corn and soybean production is not likely to mirror 2012 despite similar drought conditions this summer.

David Widmar with Ag Economic Insights compared conditions for both years during the second week of July.

“There are always millions of acres of crops in trouble, but this year the impact is pretty similar to 2012,” he says.  “That second week of July, about 75 percent of the crop was impacted by drought conditions.”

He tells Brownfield about a third of crops are typically in dry or drought conditions on average this time of year.

“In July, heading into August, the U.S. crops are kind of living rainfall to rainfall and those timely rains can really translate into a really big crop,” he says.  “But if we miss those timely rains, it can be quite devastating.”

Widmar says dryness during July is likely to have a larger impact on corn, but the hot, dry weather in the forecast for August could be more challenging for soybeans.

He is expecting to see variable yields based on where and when rain falls.

And he says there hasn’t been a great connection between what percentage of crops are in drought during the growing season and final production numbers.