Market Charts

Pork cutout props up hog futures

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cattle futures closed mixed ahead of widespread direct cash business.  Contracts were pressured by less than stellar weekly export sales totals and weakness in the stock market.  December live cattle closed $.05 lower at $117.80, February live cattle closed $.27 lower at $121.52, and April live cattle closed $.15 higher at $123.62.  January feeder cattle closed $.17 higher at $144.37 and March feeder cattle closed $.07 lower at $141.87.

A light direct cash cattle trade developed heading into the end of the day Friday. There were few deals reported at the time of the mandatory cutoff at $185 dressed in Iowa and Nebraska, which is about $3 to $5 lower than last week’s weighted average and $117 live in Kansas.  Asking prices held firm in the South at $120, plus live.

At the Ogallala Livestock Auction in Nebraska receipts were up on the year.  There was a good selection of grass cattle and feeders offered.  The USDA says demand was good on all cattle offered.  Feeder supply included 66 percent steers and 23 percent of the offering was over 600 pounds.  Medium and Large 1 feeder steers 450 to 499 pounds brought $176 to $194 and feeder steers 603 to 648 pounds brought $150.50 to $167. Feeder heifers 453 to 498 pounds brought $155 to $173.50 and feeder heifers 551 to 591 pounds brought $135 to $153.

At the Missouri Hay Market, the supply of hay is light to moderate with a moderate to good demand.  Prices remain steady.  Many smaller producers, who generally do not produce hay themselves are in the market search for hay.  Supreme quality alfalfa brought $180 to $225, small squares brought $7 to $10 per bale.  Premium quality alfalfa brought $150 to $200, good quality alfalfa brought $120 to $160, with good quality small squares bringing $5 to $7 per bale.  Good quality mixed grass hay brought $100 to $150 and small squares brought $5 to $8 per bale.  Good quality bromegrass brought $120 to $150, fair to good quality brought $60 to $100.

Boxed beef closed higher to sharply higher on good demand and moderate to heavy offerings.  Choice closed $1.62 higher at $214.29 and Select closed $2.28 higher at $200.50.  The Choice/Select spread closed at $13.79.  Estimated cattle slaughter is 121,000 head – even on the week and up 5,000 on the year.  Saturday’s estimated kill is 65,000 head – up 22,000 on the week and 19,000 on the year.

Lean hog futures closed higher, with the exception of the delivery month, on sharply higher wholesale values at midday.  There is renewed optimism about the US/China trade talks. China continues to purchase product despite the large tariff in place, which the market hopes is a sign of future business.  December lean hogs closed $.27 lower at $54.25, February lean hogs closed $.97 higher at $67.87, and April lean hogs closed $1.06 higher at $72.32.

Cash hogs closed higher with light negotiated purchase totals.  We saw another huge slaughter run this week and that’s keeping packers supply needs to be fulfilled – but also puts them in control of prices.  We expect these large slaughter runs to continue through the end of the year – on pace to set record production output.  It also puts added emphasis and keeping demand for US pork strong.  Barrows and gilts at the Iowa/Southern Minnesota closed $.80 higher with a range of $43 to $47.50 for a weighted average of $47.22; the Western Corn Belt closed $1.12 higher with a range of $43 to $47.50 for a weighted average of $47.17; the Eastern Corn Belt was not reported due to confidentiality; and the National Daily Direct closed $.48 higher with a range of $43 to $48.52 for a weighted average of $47.89.

The USDA says early-weaned pigs were $2.00 per head higher.  Feeder pig receipts were too light for a good market test. Demand was moderate on moderate offerings.  Receipts included 55 percent formulated prices.  Total composite formula rage was $37 to $47 with an average of $43.67.  Total composite cash range was $40 to $64.50 with a weighted average of $54.76.  The average for all early weaned pigs was $49.24 and the average for all feeder pigs was $60.89.

Midwest cash markets are closed today.  At Illinois, slaughter sow receipts are down on the week and the year.  Prices are weaker at $21 to $40 with moderate demand for moderate offerings.  Barrow and gilts are $1 lower at $25 to $34 with moderate demand for moderate offerings.

Pork values closed higher – up $1.51 at $73.63.  The picnics, loins, bellies, and butts all closed higher.  Hams were steady.  Ribs were weak. Estimated hog slaughter is 473,000 head – even on the week and up 15,000 on the year.  Saturday’s estimated kill is 192,000 – even on the week and down 35,000 on the year.