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Wheat mostly lower on profit taking

Soybeans were firm on light commercial and technical buying after an up and down session. 73% of U.S. soybeans are harvested, compared to 70% on average, with mixed progress expected this week. China bought 199,000 tons of 2021/22 U.S. beans, confirming some recent rumors and Mexico picked up 125,730 tons of 2021/22 U.S. beans. Safras e Mercado says that as of Friday, 35.8% of Brazil’s expected record soybean crop is planted, compared to 27% normally this time of year. CONAB’s next round of production projections is scheduled for November 9th. AgRural has planting in Brazil at 38%. For 2022/23, Mato Grosso’s state corn and soybean group is telling producers to ration fertilizer use due to high prices. That’s also expected to be an issue in the U.S. next crop year. Soybean meal and oil were mixed on bear spreading.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. 66% of corn is harvested as of Sunday, compared to 53% on average, and planting in South America is ongoing. Safras e Mercado says around 64% of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, with total production expected to be well above a year ago on the strength of expected record second crop production. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina estimates 2021/22 production at a record 54.5 million tons with exports of 40 million tons. Conditions have generally favored planting in Brazil over Argentina this season, with the market waiting to see what kind of impact La Nina has on production. Export demand for corn remains slow, despite the U.S. price advantage over other major exporters. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was mostly lower, with Chicago and Minneapolis down on profit taking and Minneapolis mixed, mostly weak, on spread trade and profit taking. Contracts corrected and consolidated, with periodic support from the supply and demand fundamentals, especially in Minneapolis. December Minneapolis traded as high as $10.47 ahead of the pull-back and March closed above $10, while December Kansas City ended the day within reach of its multi-year high for a spot price. The USDA says 80% of winter wheat is planted, matching the five-year average, while 46% of the winter crop is rated good to excellent, up 5% from the first rating a year ago, and 20% of the crop is in poor to very poor condition. Soft red winter is in generally better condition, at this stage, than either hard red or white winter. Long-term outlooks for the Plains are dry, in-line with the projected La Nina pattern. Dry weather is an issue in parts of Russia. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 9th, but selected long-term baseline projections will be released November 5th, running through 2031, using October’s report as the starting point. The full set of baseline estimates is out in February 2022.

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