Market News

Wheat, corn up Friday, but down on the week

Soybeans were mixed Friday, closing lower for the week. Weather has moderated in much of the region but there’s a chance of a return to hot, dry conditions next month in some areas. Beans were able to find some technical support late after being down for most of the session on profit taking and a lower move in meal. Meal was lower on profit taking and the unwinding of product spread, which supported soybean oil. There’s been talk this week, but no confirmation, that China has purchased several cargoes of U.S. soybeans. China has officially cleared the way for soybean meal and corn imports from Brazil starting later this year. 2022/23 soybean production for Brazil is expected to be above 2021/22, but that will depend on the impact of the La Nina pattern expected to emerge in early 2023.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying, helping temper some of the week’s losses. Corn is watching the weather, with near-term rain in the forecast for parts of the Midwest and Plains, but potentially missing some drier areas. The recent moderation of conditions in much of the region has likely helped stabilize yields to an extent, even if it might be too late to improve those yields in some areas. The USDA’s first field-based yield guess of the season is out September 12^th. France’s AgriMer says 50% of that nation’s grain crop is in good to excellent shape, 3% lower than last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year in more than a decade. Corn continues to monitor the pace of grain exports out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 91% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested, with production seen at 52 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, but not enough to pull the pits out of significant week-to-week declines. Wheat is oversold after the recent losses, shrugging off a higher move the dollar Friday, but the slow export demand due at least in part to the dollar strength is limiting any significant upside. Spring wheat harvest is picking up steam in portions of the northern Plains, while parts of the southern Plains have recently received rain ahead of new crop winter wheat planting. Hot, dry conditions persist in much of the northwestern U.S. Plains, which is lowering yields for part of the spring wheat crop. China has issued its first national drought warning of 2022 due to hit temperatures in the Yangtze River basin, a key crop production areas. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy says 91% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested with a running total of 17.4 million tons, well below year ago levels. Ukraine’s ability to harvest, plant, and export has been impacted dramatically by Russia’s invasion earlier this year.