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Soybeans up modestly on solid export demand

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying, continuing to hang around multi-month highs. China and unknown destinations bought more U.S. soybeans Wednesday morning, 238,000 and 132,000 tons, respectively, the fourth business day in a row with an announced sale, bringing the running total to 1.67 million tons. New crop sales have gotten off to a hot start, largely due to demand from China, the relatively inexpensive U.S. prices, and the tight supply in Brazil. The USDA’s national good to excellent rating on beans was down 1%. The trade is also watching conditions in Argentina and Brazil ahead of widespread planting. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA’s national corn condition rating declined 1% on the week and recent rain in parts of the Midwest is probably mostly too late to help with yields. Additionally, some northern areas have seen a frost, freeze, or even snow this week. Harvest activity is underway in parts of the Corn Belt. The USDA’s new production estimates are out Friday, along with the updated supply and demand projections. Ahead of the report, most analysts do expect the USDA to lower the yield guess following the drought or near drought conditions in parts of the region during August, in addition to damage from the derecho storm. Corn is also watching conditions ahead of widespread planting in South America. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Thursday, delayed a day by Labor Day. Agritel estimates Ukraine’s 2020 corn crop at 33.5 million tons, down from 2019 and below the USDA’s most recent guess.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago steady to firm, Kansas City up modestly, and Minneapolis slightly lower. Winter wheat planting is underway, with more rain in the forecast for parts of the Plains. That will delay activity, but the soil moisture will be beneficial in the long-term. The spring wheat harvest made a solid advance over the past week but remains slower than normal. Globally, the trade is waiting to see what the USDA projects Friday, with the potential for another round of record high production and supply estimates. Some nations have seen smaller crops due to deleterious weather conditions, while others have harvested or are on pace to harvest bumper crops.

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