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Soybeans lead a Tuesday rally

Soybeans ended the day higher, supported by strength in the bean oil and bean meal markets.  Expectations that the capacity for renewable diesel will be expanded are very supportive of soybe3an oil.  The U.S. export pace remains sold as sales are up 4% year-over-year.  Soybean crush margins are very profitable.  The uncertainty in the overnight weather forecast heading into Tuesday for Argentina was supportive, but there are concerns as Brazil’s weather remains supportive of a huge soybean crop in parts of South America.

Corn futures were mixed, mostly higher in a week where news is limited and trade volume is light.  There was some support as the shipping pace out of the Black Sea region has slowed and the weather there has gotten worse.  However, some bearish market factors report as corn export demand remains weak and is well below year-ago levels.  Ethanol demand has been sluggish, margins have declined, and stocks have risen, indicating weaker demand. 

The wheat complex was higher, but below many expectations.  This major winter storm that is expected to bring sub-zero temperatures could hit parts of Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma where much of the hard winter crop is uncovered.  That also increases the threat of winterkill. U.S. wheat exports have been less than stellar.  Russia has been the major supplier of wheat to the world, but worsening winter conditions could slow that.  Turmoil continues in the Black Sea region and Russia’s ongoing drone strikes could put Ukraine’s exports at risk.

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