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Soybeans higher as weather woes continue

Soybeans ended the day higher as concerns about the size and quality of the soybean crop linger.  Monday’s crop progress and condition report showed the good-to-excellent rating dropped 5 points to just 53%, the lowest mark since the 2012 crop.  There were significant drops in the major soybean-producing states.  Not to dwell on the current crop, but analysts expect the potential for the final soybean yield to fall below 50 bushels per acre.  That could create some concern for ending stocks.  Soybean crush margins continue to be historically high and soybean meal exports remain record large.   

Corn started the day with some strength, but prices tumbled at midday following a sell-off.  Crop conditions continue to decline, and early harvesting is underway in parts of the Corn Belt with yields that are relatively disappointing.  Conversely, CONAB raised Brazil’s corn crop to a record large 131.9 mmt.  Corn harvest for Brazil’s second crop is 88% complete.  US corn export demand is sluggish.  Allendale released its private yield estimates on Wednesday with corn yield projected at 171.51 bpa, a drop of nearly 6 bushels from 2022 yields.  Traders also continue to monitor any activity in the Black Sea gran corridor. 

The wheat complex pushed higher on Wednesday.  Paris milling wheat gave contracts a jolt early on after it put an end to its four-day skid.  The efforts continue to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but Russia refused offers from Turkey’s president.  All three markets (Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis) remain oversold.  US spring wheat harvest is about three-quarters complete and winter wheat planting is just getting underway.  Weather issues in Argentina and Australia and possible quality issues in the European Union continue to be monitored.

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