Market News

Soybeans give back some recent gains

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Most forecasts have more rain in most of Brazil, but with scattered precipitation in much of Argentina. Conditions generally remain better in Brazil than in Argentina. The trade is also waiting for any new developments in an ongoing work stoppage by grain workers in Argentina, with both sides expected to meet this Tuesday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 77.2% of Argentina’s soybean crop is planted, with 49% of the crop in good to excellent condition. Unknown destinations bought more than 350,000 tons of U.S. beans, the first announced sale of U.S. beans since November 9^th. That came in two purchases, one of 233,700 tons for 2020/21 and one of 125,000 tons for 2021/22, with unknown also buying 33,000 tons of 2020/21 U.S. bean oil. Weekly export inspections were below the previous week and last year’s levels, but last week was holiday shortened and beans remain on pace to meet or exceed USDA’s projections for the current marketing year. China’s customs data for November shows U.S. soybean imports at 6.04 million tons, compared to 2.56 million for November 2019, bringing the year to date total to 20.05 million tons. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower.

Corn was modestly higher commercial and technical buying. Corn is also watching planting and development conditions in South America. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 61.2% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted, with 20% of the crop rated good to excellent. Corn is also waiting to see what happens with the grain worker strike in Argentina, in addition to when Brazil’s second corn crop might be planted. There’s more talk of China buying U.S. corn and unknown destinations picked up 149,572 tons of 2020/21 U.S. corn Monday morning. That could turn out to be China when it’s time for delivery. China was the biggest destination for corn and sorghum in last week’s export inspections report and the overall pace of U.S. inspections for those crops remains bullish. China’s General Administration of Customs says year to date corn imports are 9.04 million tons and cumulative sorghum imports are 4.27 million tons. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Most forecasts have more beneficial precipitation in hard and soft red winter growing areas, recharging soil moisture levels as the crop progresses through or enters into dormancy. The global supply fundamentals are bearish, with new USDA estimates out January 12^th. The USDA will also be issuing winter wheat planted area numbers, final 2020 corn and soybean production totals, and quarterly grain stocks data. SovEcon now estimates Russia’s 2020/21 wheat exports at 36.3 million tons, compared to the last guess of 40.8 million tons, with an export tax scheduled to go into effect February 15^th through June 30^th. Ukraine could also restrict exports with both nations impacted by dry weather during planting. Weekly export inspections were bearish as the 2020/21 pace has fallen behind 2019/20 just over halfway through the current marketing year. DTN says Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat from an unnamed seller. China’s General Administration of Customs reports year to date wheat imports are 7.5 million tons.