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Soybeans follow soybean and crude oil higher

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. It was an up and down day, but beans were able to rally on the strength in soybean and crude oil. Bean oil was up on strong vegetable oil demand, which have pushed global prices higher, while crude oil was supported by talk of a possible ban on Russia imports by the European Union. APK-Inform says Ukraine’s April sunflower oil exports were 151,529 tons, with another 169,681 tons of oilseeds exported, most of that sunflower seed. Sustained demand from China is a question mark because of COVID lockdowns impacting port unloading and economic uncertainties. Representatives from Brazil’s Ag Ministry are reportedly set to visit Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco to talk increased fertilizer trade. Brazil was a big customer for Russia’s fertilizer industry prior to the invasion of Ukraine, which has exacerbated already tight global supplies and pushed prices higher. Soybean meal was lower on product spread adjustments.

Corn was mixed, mostly modestly higher, adjusting spreads. More near-term planting delays are likely in some key U.S. growing areas and there’s talk corn will lose some acres to soybeans. The trade continues to monitor dry weather impacting yield in central Brazil as well. That dry weather in South America is helping Argentina’s harvest move faster. Like beans, demand from China is a question mark for corn. U.S. sales have picked up steam recently, especially to China, with Ukraine mostly out of the market following Russia’s invasion. APK-Inform says April corn exports for Ukraine were 768,486 tons, with total grain movement well below a year ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 969,000 barrels a day, up 6,000 on the week and 17,000 on the year, while stocks hit a 15-week low at 23.887 million barrels, a decrease of 78,000 from the previous week, but an increase of 3.447 million from a year ago. The Renewable Fuels Association says ethanol exports for March were 125.1 million gallons, down 13% from February, with DDGS exports at 927,134 tons, up 6%.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on commercial and technical buying. Estimates for India’s wheat crop and exports are dropping due to a heatwave impacting yields, with the latest governmental forecast at 105 million tons, well below initial projections. Some estimates have fallen under 100 million tons and while there’s talk India’s government will restrict either exports or domestic procurement, nothing official has been announced. That could boost U.S. export business, which has been slower than expected and India has stepped in to fill some of the vacuum left by Ukraine’s near total absence and the restrictions on Russia. Ukraine has been exporting some grain via ports on the Danube River, where Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says shipment companies either need to reduce prices or Kyiv will take administrative action. APK-Inform says Ukraine’s grain exports for April were 923,000 tons, down sharply on the year, including 127,130 tons of wheat. Stateside, the trade continues to monitor winter wheat development conditions and spring wheat planting weather.

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