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Soybeans finish higher amid weather and yield concerns

Soybeans ended the day modestly higher with relatively quiet trade.  Soybean yields are expected to decline, and guesses have the crop anywhere from 49 to 51 bushels per acre.  The soybean crop’s good to excellent rating is also expected to drop on Monday as the crop has dealt with hot, dry weather during development time and there’s no significant rainfall in the forecast.  There was another sale of soybean to China, there have been eight announced sales in the last week and a half.   Soybean meal also showed some strength on Friday.  There is pressure facing the market in the long term – mainly South American supplies, which will likely jump again in 2024. 

Corn futures closed lower in a very narrow range.  The market continues to fight some bearish factors – the higher US Dollar Index and the expectations that there will be another record corn crop out of Brazil.  On another note, the market is looking to next week’s Supply and Demand report, which is expected to reflect yields somewhere in the 171 to 175 bushels per acre range, and very close to the final yield for 2022.  The weather has been wild for the year with much-needed rains falling in July, but a very dry and mostly hot situation since mid-August.  There’s not much rain in the forecast as well.  While corn exports are still running well behind 2022 levels, there have been some recent improvements.

The wheat complex was lower on Friday with lackluster trade.  There are multiple factors putting some pressure on US wheat.  Russia’s ongoing control of the world wheat markets and the stronger US dollar.  Export sales were better than average, but are still running more than 20 percent below a year ago.  There’s significant rainfall in the forecast for the southwestern Plains, benefiting new winter wheat crop plantings. 

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