Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat up ahead of the holiday weekend

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, ensuring a modestly higher close for the week. Most forecasts have generally good harvest conditions in much of the region into mid-month. A cold snap this weekend could cause some damage to later developing beans, but, again, weather looks mostly dry around much of the region for the next couple of weeks. Still, that dry weather is slowing down interior movement due to low river levels. Planting weather looks good for most of Brazil, with many analysts projecting a record crop, but Argentina remains mostly dry. All that being said, there’s a long way to go until the South American crop is planted, much less harvested. Soybean meal and oil were up, following beans. Bean oil did see some additional support from a higher move in crude oil. Commodity markets are closed Monday.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, helping contracts to a firm weekly finish. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity, with most analysts expecting the USDA to lower the yield guess in Wednesday’s supply, demand, and production update, out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Corn is also watching planting in South America. Livestock feed demand continues to be solid, even if export demand is slow and ethanol demand has softened. There was also some spillover from crude oil. That recent collapse in crude oil due to demand concerns is part of what’s limited corn for ethanol demand recently. France’s AgriMer says 67% of that nation’s corn crop is harvested, compared to 6% a year ago, due to drought impacting production.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, while still ending the week with significant losses. There are signs export movement from Ukraine is slowing as conflict with Russia continues. Russia was already unlikely to extend Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor and recent actions make that even less likely. Ukraine has reportedly completed its 2022 wheat harvest at 19.2 million tons, well below the 2021 total of 32.2 million tons, with winter planting expected to be severely limited by continued combat in some key growing areas and Russia’s recent illegal annexation of some eastern Ukrainian provinces. Rain in the forecast for the southern U.S. Plains won’t break drought conditions, but that won’t be a huge factor until hard red winter emerges from dormancy. While soft red winter conditions are comparatively better, increasing amounts of that region are starting to see drought or near drought conditions.