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Soybeans, corn, wheat mixed, all watching weather

Soybeans were mixed, mostly higher. There was rain over the weekend in some areas, but it missed others, and it looks like much of the region is in for a few hot, dry days. The USDA says 54% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, down 5% on the week, with 92% having emerged, compared to the five-year average of 81%. There’s a chance for rain in parts of the Midwest and Plains later this week. Forecasts for this summer are generally wetter for most of the region and August is the critical month for soybeans, but some potential may have already been lost. Soybean meal and oil were mixed on bear spreading. China’s General Administration of Customs says May soybean imports were 12.02 million tons, up 24.3% on the year, with 2023 to date 42.31 million tons. In May, China bought 10.94 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, an increase of more than 3 million from the year before, with the pace picking up steam following planting and shipping delays. U.S. export inspections last week were bearish, showing the impacts of the lower demand for U.S. beans from China. Last week’s top destinations were Egypt and Mexico.

Corn was mixed, mostly higher. Corn is watching the weather and potential for stress in some key growing areas. As of Sunday, 55% of the crop is good to excellent, 6% lower than last week, and 96% has emerged, compared to 94% on average. While extended forecasts for the region mostly have higher moisture levels, general consensus is that this year’s crop will not be record large because of the ongoing drought. There was some frost over the weekend in parts of Brazil, but it was limited with the second crop generally in good condition. AgRural says 4.7% of Brazil’s second crop has been harvested, compared to 11.4% a year ago, with most of the 2023 progress in Mato Grosso. China’s General Administration of Customs says May corn imports were 1.66 million tons, mostly supplied by Ukraine, a drop of 20.1% from last year, with this year’s running total at 10.19 million tons. The European Union’s MARS group has lowered its yield estimate for the bloc’s corn crop. Corn export inspections were down sharply on the week and the year, mainly to Mexico and China.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago up and Kansas City and Minneapolis down. Winter wheat harvest conditions look mostly favorable over the next week. Parts of the spring wheat region are expected to see some needed rainfall in the coming days. For winter wheat, 38% of the crop is called good to excellent, steady, and 94% has headed, compared to 93% normally in mid-to-late June, and 15% is harvested, compared to the usual rate of 20%. For spring wheat, 51% is called good to excellent, a drop of 9%, 98% has emerged, compared to 95% on average, and 10% is headed, matching the typical pace. The E.U. MARS unit has reduced its soft wheat yield outlook for the bloc citing dry weather in northern growing areas and excessively wet conditions in the south. Ukragoconsult says Russia’s wheat exports since the start of the marketing year July 1st, 2022 are 35.8 million tons, potentially putting 2022/23 at 42.8 million tons, and projects 2023/24 at a maximum of 45 million tons. U.S. wheat export inspections were below the prior week and last year, primarily to Panama and Mexico.

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