Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat fall on higher dollar

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to the higher trade in the dollar, with contracts notching a lower weekly finish. Brazil’s record harvest continues to move forward, with production expected to more than make up for the losses in Argentina. CONAB’s next round of estimates for Brazil’s crops is out March 9^th. Export sales were up on the week, mainly to China and Egypt, but still lower than average with a cancellation by unknown destinations. That said – the 2022/23 pace remains ahead of 2021/22 and inspections are ahead of what’s needed to meet expectations nearing the halfway point of the marketing year, with very little of this year’s purchases unshipped. Soybean meal was mixed on bull spreading, while bean oil was down on profit taking.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, along with the dollar, capping off a bearish week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum is projecting an increase in planted acres, expecting the second largest crop on record. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out March 8^th, with prospective planting and quarterly stocks data scheduled for March 31^st. A reduction in exports is probable in the next round of supply and demand numbers. Corn export demand should improve in the coming weeks as other sellers start to run short, but the pace remains far behind last marketing year. Last week’s big buyers were Japan and Mexico. The slow soybean harvest pace in Brazil is keeping second crop corn planting behind average and some areas might miss the optimal planting window.

The wheat complex was sharply lower on fund and technical selling, with extra pressure from the dollar, effectively doubling the week’s losses. There was more precipitation in the forecast for dry portions of the U.S. Plains. It’s missed some areas, but overall, the generally wetter winter should have a net benefit for the U.S. hard red winter crop. Soft red winter conditions appear mostly satisfactory. The trade also has an eye on conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada ahead of spring wheat planting. Export sales were up on the week, the Philippines and China topped the list, but Russia continues to hold most of the global market share. Ukraine’s also still exporting grain, just at a reduced pace with claims of slower inspections by Russia. That will be a point of contention in the next round of negotiations on the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia will also continue to push for the removal of sanctions despite Moscow’s ongoing offensives and reports of war crimes. The European Commission projects the E.U.’s 2022/23 soft wheat exports at 32 million tons, down 2 million on the month.