Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat cap bullish week with more gains

Soybeans were sharply higher on commercial and technical buying, cementing a strong set of gains for the week. Old crop supplies remain tight, crush demand is strong, and soybean products were higher. The support for meal and oil came from that strong crush demand. Unknown destinations bought 146,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans. The announced sales total for the week was 772,000 tons, all new crop, all either to China or unknown, which could turn out to be China when it’s time for delivery. This is typically the time of year when export demand shifts from South America to the U.S. While there are some questions however about sustained demand from China due to economic issues and diplomatic tensions with the U.S. over Taiwan, China will need soybeans. The first notice day for September CBOT contracts is next Wednesday.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, adding to the weekly gains. A major private crop tour is pointing to the USDA lowering the yield estimate next month. How much of a cut in this report is a question, as are any probable acreage adjustments following the recent prevent plant numbers. That report is out September 12^th. There is some scattered rain in the near-term forecast for the Midwest and Plains, but it might be too late to do more than just stabilize yields in parts of the region. It’s been a widely varied growing season, reflected in the USDA’s crop condition ratings and these recent yield projections. France’s AgriMer says 47% of that nation’s corn crop is in good to excellent shape, compared to 91% a year ago, with many E.U. watchers expecting an increase in corn imports to make up for the anticipated shortfall.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, ensuring week-to-week gains at the three U.S. pits. The trade is monitoring weather issues impacting wheat in the U.S., Europe, and China. Canada’s spring wheat crop is in much better shape than this time last year. Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest is essentially over, with production well below a year ago. Some fields were likely inaccessible due to Russia’s invasion, which has also impacted planting, storage, and exports. Ukraine has yet to export a significant amount of wheat through the Black Sea, but that will likely change now that the winter harvest is complete. Overall, the fundamental outlook for wheat remains just about neutral, maybe a little bearish due to the relative strength in the dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive on the export market. There’s been no announced timeline for an update of the USDA’s recently updated export sales reporting system.