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Soybeans, corn up on the day, down on the week

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, but still ended the week sharply lower. Beans and products were oversold and most forecasts do show hot, dry weather in many growing areas during key phases of development. The USDA’s next round of production projections is out July 12th. The International Grains Council sees the 2022/23 world soybean crop at 390 million tons, compared to the last guess of 387 million and the 2021/22 total of 351 million tons. There are concerns about demand from China due to another COVID outbreak. Old crop export sales were a marketing year low following a cancellation by unknown destinations, while new crop was barely over a quarter million tons, mainly to unknown. A truck strike in Argentina protesting high diesel prices continues to block four miles of grain transportation infrastructure.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, while closing the week out with substantial losses. Corn was oversold and forecasts for the next couple of months in the Midwest are mostly hot and dry. Less threatening near-term weather and macroeconomics concerns were the big bearish factors for the week. The USDA’s planted area totals are out June 30th, along with quarterly grain stocks. Old crop corn export sales were down on the week, with a cancellation by China. Mexico was the big buyer for old crop, while Costa Rica led the way for new crop. The trade is also watching yield results for Brazil’s critical second corn crop. Argentina’s corn crop is reportedly 42.3% harvested. The International Grains Council projections world new crop corn production at 1.19 billion tons, compared to the prior guess of 1.184 billion and the old crop total of 1.219 billion.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, capping off a week of huge losses for the most active months in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis. After an early attempt at mixed trade, wheat followed through on Thursday’s drop while watching winter wheat harvest activity and spring wheat development conditions. Sales were up on the week, but overall export demand remains slow, albeit just a couple of reporting weeks into the current marketing year. The leading purchasers were Mexico and Japan. The U.S. has just not seen the anticipated spike in demand following the crop damage in India and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There’s talk Ukraine could cancel export licenses for new crop wheat. There is some movement of Ukrainian grain within Europe, but it’s limited, and Black Sea business has been halted by Russian attacks on port infrastructure. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says about 62% of Argentina’s wheat crop is planted. The International Grains Council has 2022/23 world wheat production at 769 million tons, unchanged from the last estimate, but down from the 781 million a year ago.

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