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Soybeans, corn up, expecting lower USDA yield estimates

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The trade was getting ready for Tuesday’s USDA’s production update, expecting a lower yield guess. Temperatures have moderated, but it’s been a dry finish in much of the region. The USDA says 52% of U.S. soybeans are dropping leaves, a decline of 1% from a week ago, with 31% dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 25%. Soybean meal was up on demand prospects and the Philippines buying 185,000 tons of new crop bean meal Monday morning, while bean oil was mixed, consolidating. Soybean export inspections were down on the week and the year, mainly to China and Germany. The trade is also watching conditions ahead of widespread planting in Argentina and Brazil.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Analysts expect the USDA to lower production, yield, and new crop ending stocks projections. Demand for ethanol use remains solid, canceling out some of the impact of slow exports. As of Sunday, 97% of the crop is at the dough making stage, 82% has dented, 34% is mature, and 5% is harvested, all ahead of the respective average paces, with 52% of the crop called good to excellent, down 1% on the week. Corn export inspections were above the prior week and last year, primarily to Mexico and China. The new marketing year for corn, and soybeans, got underway September 1st. Corn continues to monitor the tail end of Brazil’s second crop harvest and the start of first crop planting.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The trade sees minimal changes for U.S. and world wheat ending stocks estimates. Russia continues to dominate exports and global weather concerns are largely being ignored. That includes dry weather in parts of Argentina and Australia. U.S. export inspections were higher than the previous week, but below a year ago, with Japan and Mexico leading the way. Just over a quarter into 2023/24, inspections are behind the 2022/23 pace. For U.S. spring wheat, 87% of the crop is harvested, while for winter wheat, 7% is planted, both matching their respective normal paces. Ukraine is still exporting grain, even with continued attacks by Russia.

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