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Soybeans, corn mixed, still up on the week

Soybeans were mostly lower on profit taking and technical selling, but finished the week firm to higher, with the best gains in deferred contracts. Beans generally gave back some of the gains that followed the USDA’s lower than expected acreage estimate and decline in quarterly stocks Wednesday. Weekly export numbers were bearish, China was the leading purchaser, with a big cancellation by unknown destinations, but shipments remain ahead of the expected pace for the 2020/21 marketing year. U.S. export demand has slowed down, while sales from Brazil are rising as their harvest advances and prices decline. Soybean meal was down on profit taking, while oil was mixed, mostly firm, on spread adjustments. The USDA says February’s soybean crush was lower than expected at 164 million bushels, a drop of 33 million from January and 11 million less than February 2020.

Corn was mixed, mostly modestly higher, adjusting spreads, ending the holiday-shortened weekly firm to higher. Corn consolidated after Wednesday’s mostly limit up finish in reaction to the stocks and acreage numbers. Most forecasts have dry weather in Brazil, potentially stressing their critical second crop, the source of most of their exports. Argentina’s corn crop is reportedly 8% harvested. Stateside, early planting delays are probable in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Weekly U.S. export sales were good, Japan led the way, with the pace staying ahead of USDA projections for the current marketing year, which is just over the halfway point. Ethanol futures were higher. The USDA says corn for ethanol use during February was 332.794 million bushels, down 20% from January and 23% from February 2021, with DDGS production at 1,406,427 tons, also down 20% on the month and 23% on the year.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, with the complex mixed on the week. The U.S. supply has tightened, confirmed in the quarterly numbers, but the global supply fundamentals continue to be bearish and world crop conditions look good. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th. U.S. winter wheat could see some damage from freezing temperatures and drier weather, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition reports resuming April 5th. Parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada will need more precipitation ahead of spring wheat planting. With less than a quarter left in the 2020/21 marketing year, weekly old crop export numbers were bearish, China was the top buyer, all switched from unknown destinations, while new crop sales were mainly to the Philippines. DTN says Algeria bought 500,000 tons of milling wheat from the European Union, while Saudi Arabia picked up 355,000 tons of wheat from an unknown origin.

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