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Soybeans, corn mixed after WASDE numbers

Soybeans were mixed on bear spreading, pressuring nearby contracts while supporting deferred months, but ended the week with strong gains. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks and South American production estimates unchanged with November. The Brazil guess is a little bit below the most recent number from CONAB, while Argentina’s estimate will likely change once planting has ended. China’s import and crush use projections were also steady, even though the numbers were assembled before Beijing’s official relaxation of their zero-COVID policy, while Argentina’s export estimate was above a month ago. After a pause Thursday, soybean products resumed their aggressive unwinding of spreads, sending meal higher and oil lower. There were no adjustments from the USDA for bean meal, while bean oil ending stocks were up on lower imports, biodiesel use, and exports, which offset a higher feed, food, and industrial use guess.

Corn was mixed on bull spreading, with nearby months up and deferred contracts down, finishing the week modestly lower. U.S. corn ending stocks were a little bit larger than expected following a 75 million bushel cut in the export projection. There were some expectations that change might have waited until January 12th, when the USDA will release the preliminary 2022 production totals for corn, beans, and spring wheat. There were no changes for South American production, with planting ongoing. First crop planting should wrap up in Brazil by the end of the month, with the larger second crop planted after soybeans are harvested, while planting in Argentina is much slower than average due to drought. USDA did lower production for Ukraine, the European Union, and Southeast Asia, and increased the estimate for Canada. Russia’s corn exports were down, but Ukraine’s were up following the extension of the Black Sea export agreement. Brazilian grain group ANEC is projecting that nation’s December corn exports at 5.43 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, adding to the week’s losses. Most forecasts have broad near-term precipitation coverage, both rain and snow, in parts of the U.S. Plains in the coming days. U.S. ending stocks were steady with last month with no changes to the balance sheet aside from a $.10 reduction in the average 2022/23 farm price, now seen at $9.10 per bushel. Domestically, by class,  stocks were unchanged for hard red winter, up 5 million each for hard red spring and white winter, and down 10 million tons for soft red winter wheat. Overall U.S. production is expected to be slightly above a year ago. Global production and ending stocks were lower than last month. Production numbers were down for Argentina and Canada, up for Brazil and Canada. There were no changes to crop production for Russia or Ukraine. USDA did raise the export guesses for Australia, the E.U., Russia, and Ukraine, while reducing expectations for Argentina and India. Egypt reportedly bought 260,000 tons of wheat from Russia.

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