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Soybeans, corn lower, expecting big U.S. crops

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. 73% of U.S. beans are rated good to excellent, up 1% on the week, going against the seasonal trend, with development ahead of average. Near-term crop development weather generally looks non-threatening, but some areas do need rain, including most of Iowa, along with parts of several other states. StoneX, formerly INTL FCStone, sees this year’s crop at 4.496 billion bushels with an average yield of 54.2 bushels per acre, assuming normal frost dates and using the current USDA harvested area estimate. No new export sales were announced Tuesday and the tensions between the U.S. and China continue to hang in the background, canceling out some of the U.S. price advantage over Brazil. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans. The losses in bean oil came despite another higher move in Malaysian palm oil heading into the U.S. session. China’s COFCO has reportedly resumed operations at its’ crush and export plant in Argentina following a COVID-19 outbreak.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. 72% of the U.S. corn crop is called good to excellent, steady with last week and 15% above a year ago, with faster than normal development, on average. Some private firms are putting out higher yield estimates, with the USDA’s next projection out on the 12th, along with new supply and demand estimates. StoneX, formerly INTL FCSTone, has the final 2020 yield at 182.4 bushels per acre with total production of 15.320 billion bushels. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply report is out Wednesday. The European Union says corn exports since the start of the marketing year July 1st are 1.01 million tons, 52% less than this time last year; that includes sales from Great Britain.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat continues to react to the recent higher global production estimates for some key export competitors, including Australia and Russia. 85% of U.S. winter wheat is harvested, while the spring wheat condition rating improved to 73% good to excellent with 5% of that crop harvested. The harvest paces for both U.S. spring and winter wheat are slower than their respective five-year averages. According to data from the European Union, soft wheat exports for the bloc and Great Britain since July 1st are 635,453 tons, 68% below year ago levels. Ukraine’s ministry of the economy says the running total for their wheat harvest is 18.3 million tons.

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