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Soybeans, corn down on rain chances in Brazil

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling. There was some rain in the near-term forecast for dry parts of Brazil, along with a break from rain in some of the wetter areas. Still, those changes might be short-lived. Even then, that will help farmers catch up and might reduce the amount of replanted acreage, with many projections still calling for another record crop in Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook is scheduled for December 7th. Conditions in areas of Argentina have improved after recent rainfall. The bigger issues in Argentina are the very tight domestic supplies and the upcoming presidential election and the potential impact on the soy dollar program. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was lower on commercial and technical selling. Corn was watching weather in South America, but the key test will be the performance of Brazil’s second crop. That’s the largest of their three crops and the source of most of their exports. The overall corn crop in Brazil should be down on the year, but is still expected to be relatively large, which would probably continue to limit global demand for U.S. corn. While the U.S. harvest is nearly complete, some areas will see some near-term delays, with cooler temperatures and precipitation in parts of the Midwest and Plains.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The big bearish factor for wheat continues to be the slow export demand as Russia controls that market with Ukraine still exporting grain. The anticipated demand for U.S. wheat from China following widespread crop damage has not materialized. The tighter U.S. supply and any world crop concerns are largely canceled out by another big crop in Russia. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out December 8th. U.S. winter wheat will enter dormancy in better than a year ago shape in most domestic growing areas.

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