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Soybeans, corn bow to harvest, dollar pressure

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to the higher trade in the dollar. U.S. harvest weather looks good, but an expected cold snap could harm later developing crops. Post-harvest movement is also a concern with low water levels on parts of the Mississippi River hampering activity. CONAB is projecting a record crop in Brazil next year at 152.352 million tons and export demand for U.S. beans hasn’t been great. Sales were down last week, mainly to Mexico and China. Overall commitments are ahead of last marketing year, but the actual pace of shipments remains slower than what’s needed to meet USDA projections. Some projections have China importing just five million tons of soybeans this month, which would be their lowest total for October in two years. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads, with bean oil seeing additional support from another higher move in crude oil due to a planned production cut by OPEC.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, along with pressure from the dollar. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity with colder conditions over the next few days expected to be followed by seasonal temperatures. Planting weather looks good in most of Brazil, but dry conditions are causing delays in parts of Argentina. The big test for Brazil will be the second corn crop, which is planted after the soybean harvest. CONAB sees total corn production in Brazil at 126.942 million tons, with the second crop at 96.277 million. The USDA’s next round of production numbers is out October 12th. Weekly U.S. corn sales were bearish, with Mexico and Honduras the leading buyers, a routine amount purchased by China, and a small cancellation by Japan. A corn growers’ group in France says that nation’s corn crop might be around 10 million tons, the lowest in more than 30 years because of drought.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, as well as the gains in the U.S. dollar. Most forecasts do have some rain in the southern U.S. Plains, but not enough to break drought conditions. That will be a bigger deal for hard red winter when the crop emerges from dormancy next spring. Soft red winter planting conditions are generally favorable. U.S. and world wheat ending stocks are projected at more than ten-year lows, but U.S. wheat remains at a significant premium to other exporters. That could change when Ukraine’s Black Sea export corridor expires November 22nd. Russia is continuing to occupy illegally annexed portions of eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian troops have recaptured some territory. The continued sanctions on Russia are also a wild card for global exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also impacting harvest and planting activity. Weekly U.S. numbers were bearish, with the Philippines and Taiwan topping the list.

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